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Prediction for CME (2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-06-28T21:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39818/-1
CME Note: CME observed as a faint partial halo, nearly a full halo, directed towards the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, and a brighter front to the NE in STEREO A COR. Also faintly observed in currently available frames of SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is a C4.0 flare from AR 14126 (N07W22) which peaked at 2025-06-28T19:54Z observed in SDO AIA 131, alongside brightening in SDO AIA 171/193/304 and a small dimming SW of the region best seen in SDO AIA 193. Arrival characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components (B_t: approx. 4.2nT to 13.2nT , B_x: approx. 6.7nT to -8.1nT , B_y: approx. 4.8nT to -4.9nT , B_z: approx. -7.6nT to 9.7nT) along with enhancement in speed (approx. 342km/s to 407km/s), temperature (approx. 12kK to 44kK) and density (approx. 7p/cc to 33p/cc). This signature also displays separation in magnetic field components, indicating the possible passage of a flux rope.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-07-03T05:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-07-02T09:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 55.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50629
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Jun 2025, 1242UT
SIDC FORECAST

...Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 21:00 UTC on Jun 28. It was associated with the C4.0 flare (peaked at 19:54 UTC on June 28) produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 537 (NOAA Active Region 4126). With its source region
(N06 W21) closer to the central meridian, the corresponding ICME is expected to impact the Earth on Jul 01-02.

Lead Time: 70.55 hour(s)
Difference: 20.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) on 2025-06-30T07:05Z

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